Abstract:Method of subjective probabilities is an important means for total resources prognosis with which the quantitative assessment of mineral resources can be made on the basis of geologists' experience and knowledge instead of on the objective geological data. The first step is to single out prospective metallogenetic districts of different classes in a predicted area by some experienced geological experts with a probabilitic approach to present the data in the form of such parameters as number, size and ore grade of deposits which might occur in the area. And then, one can synthesize the experts' appraisals by means of Monte Carlo's method and the coefficrent of transformation to obtain the data on total mineral resources and their distribution in the area. The Yangtze-valley region in Anhui Province was selected as an area for ore-predicting. Ten experienced geological experts were invited to prognosticate the areal total copper resources. According to the spatial distribution of prognostic reserves, seven prospective (such as Tongling) and six secondary prospective (such as Miaoxi) metallogenetic districts have been recognized, with their distribution approximately in agreement with that of regional geological metallogenetic features and geophysical and geochemical anomalies. The results of prognosis can be taken as a basis for prospective planning and work disposing.
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谢英奎, 段中会, 王文杰.1986.主观概率法在沿江地区铜矿资源总量预测评价中的应用[J].矿床地质,5(1):79~87.1986.Method Of Subjective Probabilities For Total Copper Resources.Prognosis And Assessment Along Yangtze Valley In Anhui Province[J].Mineral Deposits5(1):79~87
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